It's no secret that the Western community is at a loss about developing a proper response to Russia's occupation of the Crimean Peninsula. While the US intelligence community seems anxious about Russia's next steps, there is also the question of how future cooperative initiatives will be affected by recent events. This has not only been seen with regards to the suspension of the Northern Eagle exercise between Norway, Russia, and the United States or the decision to reduce the G8 to a luckier number, but Russia's actions have even carried over into non-security initiatives with a major impact on Arctic cooperation. The biggest impact has been seen in Norway, whose shared border with Russia has allowed for some of the most positive Arctic initiatives to come to fruition in recent years. As a result of the Crimean crisis, however, the Norwegian environmental minister canceled a planned trip to Moscow. On a lower level, the Nordic Contact Center in Murmansk has also closed as a result of the crisis. General concern about the crisis' effects on the Russian economy may also scare off potential investors from Russia in the short-term.
The issue here is not so much a question of whether Russia will suddenly reverse the generally cooperative tone it has taken toward the Arctic region in recent years (although continued military exercises in the Arctic will surely keep alarmists guessing), but whether the international community will isolate Russia diplomatically in all aspects should it take further steps against Ukraine. This would surely prevent Russia's participation in Arctic diplomatic initiatives, which would be particularly damaging given the the country's role in the region. Seeing as the Arctic is one of the few areas of legitimate strategic cooperation between the West and Russia, it is certainly essential that Arctic practitioners leave the door open for continued cooperation with Russia in the future when conditions allow. When that will be, however, is a much more difficult question to answer.
