What a "shot-down" plane means for Ukraine

I had a paradoxical moment today when I walked past an ice cream truck and heard the driver having a conversation with a customer about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On the one hand, it's always nice to hear members of the public engaged on issues facing the world around them. On the other hand, what does it say about my own relevance when someone from outside of the field (big assumption on my part, of course: you never know where you will find a Ph.D these days) can come to his own conclusions regarding difficult global events? Hopefully I haven't let everyone in on the big secret.

The bigger issue of the last two days, however, has been the purported shoot-down of a Malaysian Airlines plane over Ukraine. There were also some notable events in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, though I'll perhaps leave further discussion on that to those in the ice cream business. We're faced with a few difficult questions in the latest incident in Ukraine. Is this ultimately Russia's fault for giving them advanced anti-aircraft technology in the first place? Why weren't airlines avoiding Eastern Ukraine? Should we blame Ukraine for not imposing stricter limits on aircraft overflying its territory? (Some analysis on that last point has already been done). The pessimistic side of me thinks that little will be done in regard to this, and not just because the United States and Russia have previous experience with controversial shoot-downs of passenger airliners. It's also not as if Russia wasn't already in the doghouse for actually invading Ukraine's territorial integrity. Perhaps the most interesting response will come from European countries (particularly the Netherlands, where this flight originated) who may feel that the deaths of over two hundred civilians with no relation to the conflict may be the ultimate red line. Certainly, Russia views this is problematic for its long-term goals in the region, which are becoming increasingly difficult to figure out. Perhaps this will prove to be the insurmountable event that will cause the Russians to dial back their role in the Ukrainian crisis.